* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NEWTON EP152016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 42 44 49 51 45 39 35 29 28 28 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 42 44 49 51 37 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 41 43 45 44 34 31 28 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 8 6 7 11 11 12 13 26 31 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 2 1 -2 0 -3 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 77 94 74 86 96 117 219 233 243 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.8 28.0 28.5 30.2 27.2 23.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 159 154 145 151 168 136 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -51.0 -51.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.6 -52.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 5 3 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 78 81 82 81 74 65 55 46 37 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 14 14 7 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 66 51 57 55 29 37 23 4 1 1 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 147 103 101 90 92 50 44 21 32 3 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 4 3 0 -4 4 8 3 0 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 283 248 230 240 269 104 3 -21 -36 -159 -331 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.9 19.8 22.0 24.1 26.7 29.7 31.9 33.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.5 106.1 106.6 107.4 108.2 109.7 111.1 112.0 112.2 111.6 110.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 13 13 13 14 13 10 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 38 32 29 32 14 16 1 34 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -7. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -12. -19. -18. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 14. 16. 10. 4. 0. -6. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.46 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.61 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.80 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 39.7% 27.5% 18.0% 17.4% 30.9% 21.4% Logistic: 23.6% 56.0% 58.6% 30.9% 22.5% 57.5% 36.5% Bayesian: 16.4% 34.7% 18.9% 4.6% 1.4% 11.1% 6.5% Consensus: 18.0% 43.5% 35.0% 17.8% 13.8% 33.2% 21.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 NEWTON 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##