* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152016 09/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 49 49 48 37 30 30 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 44 49 43 36 31 23 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 31 29 29 25 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 14 10 11 10 13 10 5 14 24 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 4 0 -1 1 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 68 82 80 68 97 121 188 207 223 227 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.2 27.5 27.8 30.2 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 165 165 164 162 156 148 140 143 168 163 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 78 80 81 78 70 60 54 43 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 15 16 14 11 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 47 61 58 59 55 51 49 26 13 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 130 96 107 103 69 25 46 24 30 3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 0 4 -1 0 4 4 5 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 307 260 237 248 323 61 -32 -50 52 -37 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 10 11 13 14 13 12 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 47 40 33 29 34 5 0 0 13 47 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -2. -6. -15. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 19. 18. 7. 0. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.7 105.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152016 FIFTEEN 09/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.53 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.84 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.40 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 81.4 to 0.0 0.96 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 30.8% 21.9% 14.6% 0.0% 18.7% 16.9% Logistic: 5.2% 16.4% 21.7% 5.6% 3.2% 23.8% 27.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 17.6% 6.3% 2.0% 0.5% 3.4% 3.1% Consensus: 5.2% 21.6% 16.7% 7.4% 1.2% 15.3% 15.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152016 FIFTEEN 09/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##