* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 23 22 18 15 13 12 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 77 84 85 82 85 105 150 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 124 123 120 120 120 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 60 58 54 52 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 65 65 57 54 49 50 48 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 9 5 -12 -14 -6 -7 -12 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 2 2 3 2 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 845 955 1060 1148 1237 1435 1632 1833 2031 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.6 19.1 18.6 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.3 121.5 122.6 123.7 125.9 127.9 129.9 131.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.5 119.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##