* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 21 17 12 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 81 84 84 84 88 95 134 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 125 125 124 120 118 118 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 62 58 55 50 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 57 68 67 50 58 50 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 17 11 1 -12 -7 -10 -11 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 1 -1 0 2 1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 754 859 970 1072 1159 1335 1531 1734 1947 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.2 20.1 19.9 19.6 19.2 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.2 120.4 121.6 122.7 124.9 127.1 129.2 131.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.4 117.9 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##