* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 27 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 27 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 21 20 19 14 10 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 72 85 81 80 80 84 114 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 128 125 124 123 119 115 115 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 63 61 55 50 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 63 59 65 56 43 46 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 14 18 12 -6 -7 -11 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 0 -1 0 2 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 658 746 845 949 1043 1206 1384 1581 1821 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.1 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.9 119.1 120.3 121.5 123.7 125.9 128.1 130.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 116.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 153.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##