* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 22 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 18 19 20 14 12 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 76 86 94 91 87 77 94 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 26.9 26.3 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 127 124 123 120 117 115 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 64 63 62 56 52 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 67 56 53 58 37 46 49 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 25 13 8 1 -5 -4 -17 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 1 0 1 1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 577 653 747 843 943 1110 1297 1505 1712 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.6 20.4 20.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.7 118.0 119.2 120.3 122.6 124.9 127.2 129.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 115.3 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.13 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 4.2% 2.5% 1.6% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/13/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##