* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOVA EP122017 08/12/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 25 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 17 18 14 16 15 15 11 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 3 0 -4 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 77 75 69 76 80 66 68 62 61 30 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.1 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.1 24.8 24.9 24.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 142 136 128 123 120 115 111 112 109 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 64 62 60 55 51 47 46 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 15 16 16 13 13 11 11 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 73 79 74 67 61 42 55 50 64 55 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 28 21 15 20 3 1 -6 -13 -9 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 380 464 537 613 708 905 1057 1237 1460 1676 1883 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.8 20.4 19.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.7 114.9 116.2 117.6 120.0 122.2 124.6 127.2 129.4 131.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -10. -13. -19. -22. -25. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.3 112.4 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.64 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.02 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.28 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 0.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 5.2% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122017 JOVA 08/12/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##