* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 49 50 50 48 41 34 26 25 25 24 22 V (KT) LAND 45 48 49 50 50 48 41 34 26 25 25 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 50 50 46 41 34 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 4 6 3 6 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -6 -5 -2 0 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 114 163 190 189 193 271 18 59 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.0 24.5 23.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 124 121 119 112 107 100 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 46 46 46 40 37 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -8 -10 -6 -29 -50 -59 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -12 -20 -25 -23 -32 -37 -30 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 2 6 4 5 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 476 487 503 536 573 670 745 848 982 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.5 116.0 116.6 117.1 118.6 120.3 122.0 123.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 6 8 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -4. -11. -19. -20. -20. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.3 115.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.37 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 340.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.44 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 4.3% 7.1% 5.7% 2.8% 2.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 1.6% 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##