* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/21/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 45 46 44 43 39 35 28 22 18 16 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 45 46 44 43 39 35 28 22 18 16 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 44 42 39 36 32 27 21 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 2 5 5 4 2 5 8 7 4 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 -5 4 4 7 8 12 9 14 SHEAR DIR 115 117 42 47 67 119 162 35 61 43 75 47 162 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.7 24.2 23.8 23.8 23.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 130 128 123 116 109 103 99 99 96 89 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 61 57 56 54 51 48 44 41 37 39 38 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 15 13 13 12 10 7 5 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 -2 5 -2 -14 -13 -41 -58 -68 -88 -80 -67 200 MB DIV 19 17 8 11 -13 -34 -32 -30 -20 -40 -17 -12 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 3 2 0 4 2 4 2 2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 423 443 464 463 467 519 596 649 706 809 926 1054 1196 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.1 23.6 23.6 23.2 23.2 23.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.1 113.6 114.0 114.5 115.0 116.3 117.6 118.9 120.3 121.6 122.7 124.2 126.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -17. -23. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.4 113.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.45 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.86 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.13 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 272.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.52 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.16 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 23.2% 17.3% 11.4% 10.7% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.4% 4.7% 3.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.9% 7.3% 4.8% 4.0% 4.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/21/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##