* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 46 47 45 42 40 35 28 21 16 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 46 47 45 42 40 35 28 21 16 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 45 42 39 35 30 25 19 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 1 2 5 3 5 8 5 11 12 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 2 0 0 -1 5 3 6 7 11 7 SHEAR DIR 52 64 53 35 21 52 113 158 62 81 75 91 72 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.5 24.9 24.4 24.1 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 134 131 125 120 116 110 105 101 96 93 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 61 58 57 56 54 50 51 47 47 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 16 17 16 17 16 15 13 11 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -2 2 0 -8 -8 -20 -32 -53 -65 -66 -76 -72 200 MB DIV 21 30 21 12 -6 -24 -23 -19 -19 -3 -30 -8 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 406 408 417 431 436 426 475 546 616 680 745 812 880 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 112.8 113.2 113.6 114.0 114.9 116.0 117.1 118.3 119.6 120.8 121.8 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 0. -3. -5. -10. -17. -24. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.0 112.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.49 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.18 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 219.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.59 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.01 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 23.1% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.8% 3.0% 1.3% 0.5% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 9.3% 6.9% 0.4% 0.2% 4.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##