* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/20/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 47 47 48 49 48 46 40 34 28 23 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 47 47 48 49 48 46 40 34 28 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 43 44 44 42 40 38 35 31 26 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 8 8 6 6 9 11 11 16 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 3 3 0 0 0 -2 1 1 0 5 10 SHEAR DIR 43 50 49 72 85 35 79 101 131 79 103 104 100 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.6 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 141 139 136 132 127 123 118 115 110 107 104 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 67 62 60 53 52 50 50 48 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 15 16 15 15 13 11 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 -4 1 -2 -8 -5 -18 -30 -53 -74 -78 -92 200 MB DIV 33 38 28 29 31 -11 -15 -22 -10 -17 -16 -26 0 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 1 -1 3 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 489 470 456 457 464 498 514 534 571 625 674 727 789 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.3 22.7 22.9 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.6 112.9 113.2 113.6 114.5 115.6 116.3 117.0 117.8 118.8 119.8 120.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 0. -6. -12. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 112.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.59 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 4.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.06 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.29 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 154.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.69 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 23.3% 16.1% 10.8% 9.0% 12.4% 12.0% Logistic: 4.5% 13.0% 7.5% 4.9% 2.5% 4.6% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 12.4% 8.0% 5.3% 3.9% 5.7% 5.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/20/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##