* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 47 50 50 49 48 45 40 35 31 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 47 50 50 49 48 45 40 35 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 42 40 38 35 32 28 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 12 9 8 9 10 12 10 10 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -2 0 1 -1 0 -1 6 2 5 5 SHEAR DIR 61 48 49 51 56 62 67 99 106 118 67 103 126 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.5 25.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 143 140 135 132 128 124 121 116 115 110 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 65 67 64 64 61 61 58 56 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 12 11 11 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -13 -9 -5 -5 -7 -1 -15 -33 -51 -66 -59 200 MB DIV 40 31 27 34 33 27 -28 -7 -8 -8 -19 -11 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -6 -7 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 472 429 391 368 350 333 332 343 327 320 362 457 573 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.5 111.8 112.0 112.2 112.5 112.8 113.2 113.6 114.2 115.2 116.4 117.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 8 6 6 5 4 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. 5. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 111.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.67 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.09 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.30 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.15 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 22.1% 15.4% 10.6% 8.4% 12.1% 11.3% Logistic: 5.4% 11.3% 8.5% 3.6% 1.6% 5.4% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 11.5% 8.1% 4.7% 3.3% 5.8% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##