* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122016 08/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 42 41 38 36 34 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 43 44 42 41 38 36 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 36 35 33 31 29 27 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 15 13 13 13 10 8 14 15 15 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 61 67 72 66 60 74 87 74 76 83 90 88 115 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 148 147 144 142 139 139 138 134 124 109 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 72 70 70 68 69 67 69 64 62 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -16 -7 -7 -13 -11 -4 -11 -1 -11 -31 -38 -34 200 MB DIV 61 59 48 36 22 17 14 -8 4 -3 9 -12 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -3 0 -1 -4 -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 559 525 478 440 404 352 313 285 261 257 276 283 314 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 110.6 111.0 111.2 111.4 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.5 111.7 112.3 113.5 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 5 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 11 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 110.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 TWELVE 08/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.77 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.23 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.12 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 19.7% 13.3% 9.1% 0.0% 10.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 8.9% 4.9% 2.2% 1.0% 3.4% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 3.4% 11.5% 6.5% 3.8% 0.3% 4.5% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 TWELVE 08/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##