* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122016 08/18/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 39 42 42 42 41 39 40 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 39 42 42 42 41 39 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 35 34 32 31 31 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 16 15 14 9 11 6 10 7 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -4 -5 -3 2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 57 58 64 64 67 69 76 94 100 111 134 143 101 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.4 26.8 25.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 151 148 144 142 141 139 135 129 120 111 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 75 75 71 71 69 66 65 63 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -12 -17 -8 -7 -15 -18 -8 -5 5 -7 -17 -19 200 MB DIV 39 52 48 43 31 20 6 6 5 15 -14 3 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -6 -4 -1 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 537 548 514 470 429 343 288 264 242 221 208 212 232 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 3 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 14 11 9 7 7 7 7 6 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 12. 12. 11. 9. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 109.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122016 TWELVE 08/18/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.30 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.14 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.37 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.41 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 13.4% 9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 6.8% 8.7% Logistic: 2.1% 1.6% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% Consensus: 1.8% 6.1% 4.0% 2.5% 0.1% 2.8% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 TWELVE 08/18/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##