* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112017 08/05/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 23 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 32 31 28 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 92 92 101 110 120 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 131 128 126 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 52 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 3 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -4 -15 -3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 352 328 310 306 304 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.6 111.9 112.1 112.2 112.4 112.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 5 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -15. -24. -31. -36. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -20. -27. -32. -35. -38. -38. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.1 111.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 187.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112017 ELEVEN 08/05/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##