* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GREG EP072017 07/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 53 52 49 48 43 43 41 38 34 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 53 52 49 48 43 43 41 38 34 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 53 52 48 44 40 38 36 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 8 9 10 12 10 6 6 4 2 3 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -1 0 2 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 210 239 223 229 241 245 295 332 3 7 327 298 276 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.2 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 139 138 137 135 130 126 124 121 120 114 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 73 69 67 65 65 62 59 56 52 47 43 39 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 18 19 19 19 19 17 18 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 37 43 41 42 42 37 29 23 23 21 16 200 MB DIV 24 16 1 13 26 31 19 32 19 9 20 7 -23 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 3 2 6 4 LAND (KM) 1275 1321 1363 1423 1490 1644 1801 1934 2069 2188 2214 2063 1911 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.7 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.7 120.7 121.8 122.9 125.0 127.1 129.0 130.9 132.5 134.0 135.3 136.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 10 8 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 11 6 7 10 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 520 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -2. -7. -7. -9. -12. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 118.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.46 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.62 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.67 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.8% 22.7% 18.0% 14.8% 13.1% 18.8% 15.2% 6.8% Logistic: 3.0% 4.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 9.4% 6.7% 5.3% 4.4% 6.7% 5.3% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 GREG 07/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##