* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 33 32 29 27 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 33 33 32 29 27 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 20 19 19 20 22 24 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 29 32 33 26 22 22 17 16 18 23 31 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 -1 2 1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 247 250 259 273 275 274 290 288 296 304 323 314 318 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 128 128 130 133 135 131 129 125 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -55.5 -56.1 -56.7 -56.9 -57.3 -56.9 -57.1 -56.8 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 8 700-500 MB RH 35 33 32 33 35 35 38 36 39 38 43 46 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 3 4 4 4 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -28 -24 -25 -44 -45 -61 -56 -70 -68 -74 -57 200 MB DIV 4 11 1 0 -6 0 -6 -11 -23 -33 -13 -1 1 700-850 TADV 8 11 7 4 2 4 -5 -1 -10 -10 -5 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 380 309 283 273 257 288 321 445 663 866 1038 1137 1176 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.4 23.7 25.0 26.0 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.2 152.0 152.6 153.3 154.2 156.2 158.5 161.0 163.5 165.9 167.7 168.8 169.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 13 11 10 6 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 2 2 3 6 3 4 11 2 2 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -17. -22. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 151.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.01 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.99 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 90.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 247.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##