* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 110 112 116 116 113 102 93 78 69 62 55 V (KT) LAND 110 108 110 112 116 116 113 102 93 78 69 62 55 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 105 106 107 105 97 84 71 61 54 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 2 2 1 4 7 9 13 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -5 -4 -2 -1 7 6 3 -1 2 9 12 SHEAR DIR 346 21 45 86 144 152 150 264 280 287 286 273 267 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.4 26.8 26.1 25.6 25.3 25.1 25.0 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 150 146 138 131 124 118 115 113 112 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 66 63 59 56 53 52 49 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 26 28 28 30 28 29 25 24 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 13 12 13 16 19 30 33 47 57 57 52 55 45 200 MB DIV 63 74 82 94 116 74 100 55 33 -5 -13 -20 -3 700-850 TADV -8 -8 -7 -6 -5 -3 -2 5 9 5 6 8 11 LAND (KM) 1964 2019 2080 2148 2214 2314 2334 2144 1980 1819 1667 1483 1292 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 124.8 126.0 127.2 128.4 129.6 131.6 133.4 135.0 136.4 137.8 139.2 140.9 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 36 21 14 12 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -29. -37. -43. -47. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. -0. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. 0. 2. 6. 6. 3. -8. -17. -32. -41. -48. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 11.7 124.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 395.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 7.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##