* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022017 06/01/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 28 29 33 35 37 39 39 39 40 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 13 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 213 224 238 246 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 157 156 154 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 73 71 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 5 3 4 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 60 65 64 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 89 92 91 78 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 7 -58 -121 -159 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.4 18.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.2 96.9 96.6 96.3 95.9 95.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 11 36 32 37 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 97.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022017 TWO 06/01/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.65 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 46.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022017 TWO 06/01/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##