* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 42 48 52 52 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 35 42 48 52 52 52 53 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 25 27 29 31 32 34 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 10 10 9 10 8 4 8 7 10 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -1 -1 -2 0 -5 -2 -4 -4 -2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 104 117 122 125 127 155 185 221 203 222 207 210 210 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 168 167 163 162 163 163 163 163 163 163 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 9 8 10 8 9 7 9 8 11 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 68 66 72 77 75 72 67 66 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 45 48 35 33 42 32 30 26 27 20 23 27 200 MB DIV 88 105 119 110 105 116 94 98 61 66 56 49 41 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 395 385 381 385 382 333 355 356 341 346 366 368 346 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.7 12.5 12.5 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.0 94.3 94.7 95.2 96.1 96.2 96.4 96.9 97.2 97.1 97.2 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 2 1 2 2 1 0 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 26 28 30 34 36 37 37 37 39 39 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 27. 27. 27. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 93.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.99 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 12 UTC ## ##