* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 34 44 53 62 69 71 75 79 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 26 34 44 53 62 69 71 75 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 21 21 21 22 25 28 32 38 44 54 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 13 8 7 9 10 7 4 4 9 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -2 0 0 -1 -4 -6 -5 -6 -8 -3 SHEAR DIR 99 105 114 124 123 140 162 183 131 134 135 109 116 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 169 168 166 165 163 163 164 165 164 165 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 72 71 70 77 77 74 70 64 61 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 10 12 14 14 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 54 48 48 49 36 31 37 29 37 36 45 47 54 200 MB DIV 75 91 109 125 124 123 116 103 93 72 114 117 122 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 423 413 414 421 431 389 362 377 384 386 377 390 395 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.3 12.5 12.4 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.8 94.4 94.8 95.2 96.1 96.9 97.1 96.9 97.0 97.7 97.8 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 4 5 2 0 0 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 21 24 26 28 30 36 39 40 41 41 40 42 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 3. 2. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 9. 19. 28. 37. 44. 46. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.7 93.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.1 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 36.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/11/17 06 UTC ## ##