* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 46 54 59 63 63 64 64 66 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 46 54 59 63 63 64 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 38 42 45 48 51 53 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 14 10 6 8 10 10 8 11 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -6 -4 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 93 108 102 102 122 158 169 191 203 185 195 179 174 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 169 168 165 163 162 161 160 160 161 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 700-500 MB RH 71 76 75 75 74 75 75 80 80 76 74 70 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 57 56 56 42 34 41 35 45 36 49 45 200 MB DIV 125 117 101 107 120 139 138 136 98 89 78 79 73 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 425 411 396 391 396 422 389 358 328 317 315 315 317 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.5 12.8 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.0 93.4 93.9 94.4 95.3 96.1 96.6 96.8 96.8 96.7 96.7 96.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 23 25 26 30 36 37 35 35 35 35 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 28. 29. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 92.6 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 18 UTC ## ##