* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/10/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 48 51 59 66 72 75 76 76 75 73 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 48 51 59 66 72 75 76 76 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 47 49 55 61 68 72 74 74 75 77 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 9 10 4 6 9 10 7 10 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 96 98 110 103 94 122 162 175 185 178 174 181 187 SST (C) 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 169 166 163 162 162 162 162 161 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 9 8 9 7 9 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 75 73 73 73 74 79 82 79 74 71 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 59 52 54 53 49 53 41 44 38 44 45 55 42 200 MB DIV 113 122 112 97 112 135 146 151 114 108 70 67 90 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 452 430 409 403 401 432 402 377 368 334 289 267 259 LAT (DEG N) 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.3 13.4 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.8 93.2 93.5 93.9 94.9 95.8 96.3 96.5 96.5 96.3 96.0 95.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 5 4 2 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 22 23 25 29 34 37 37 35 31 27 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 19. 26. 32. 35. 36. 36. 35. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.1 92.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.49 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 50.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 12 UTC ## ##