* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 45 54 65 75 81 84 87 83 80 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 45 54 65 75 81 84 87 83 80 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 41 43 48 56 65 74 80 84 83 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 10 10 8 6 9 9 12 12 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 2 -1 -2 1 0 -2 1 -4 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 104 97 98 106 116 103 138 162 171 177 182 184 151 SST (C) 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.5 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 170 168 164 165 165 162 161 160 159 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 74 73 76 77 77 75 76 76 82 79 76 69 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 12 14 17 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 70 60 51 56 51 57 48 43 51 49 59 58 76 200 MB DIV 131 123 141 136 118 142 149 165 142 132 81 60 106 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 483 483 483 474 474 504 456 406 353 295 246 189 133 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.0 93.5 94.0 94.5 95.6 96.5 96.9 97.0 96.8 96.5 96.1 95.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 25 27 30 40 48 43 38 32 27 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 24. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 5. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 19. 30. 40. 46. 49. 52. 48. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.8 92.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 26.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 06 UTC ## ##