* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012017 05/10/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 43 48 53 61 75 86 94 94 94 90 84 V (KT) LAND 35 40 43 48 53 61 75 86 94 94 94 90 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 53 62 72 86 98 102 101 98 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 10 12 9 9 8 12 15 16 19 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 -7 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 109 114 100 96 118 89 105 103 114 140 107 113 120 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 170 170 170 170 166 165 165 163 162 162 157 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 11 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 76 78 78 77 76 76 75 71 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 12 14 16 19 21 22 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 62 55 59 59 51 48 52 54 62 64 79 200 MB DIV 152 163 156 159 161 150 192 166 149 99 89 57 101 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 514 508 507 512 519 552 533 474 390 335 310 251 158 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.6 10.9 11.5 12.3 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.6 93.1 93.7 94.3 95.4 96.4 97.0 97.2 97.2 97.0 96.8 96.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 25 27 37 54 54 42 36 34 29 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. 0. 3. 7. 9. 10. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 18. 26. 40. 51. 59. 59. 59. 55. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.4 92.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012017 ONE 05/10/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 38.9 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 158.2 -11.0 to 135.3 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 20.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.1 to -1.7 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ONE 05/10/17 00 UTC ## ##