* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992016 10/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 41 46 49 48 45 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 41 46 49 48 45 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 34 34 32 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 14 10 6 8 8 11 10 16 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 78 77 75 74 89 129 184 230 256 263 251 249 250 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 156 157 156 153 150 136 136 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 67 69 73 69 65 62 62 57 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -25 -26 -21 -13 -2 -5 -19 -24 -34 -41 -31 -15 200 MB DIV 26 38 39 39 37 -9 14 20 41 1 10 5 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 3 4 11 7 9 7 4 3 0 LAND (KM) 707 745 760 785 808 915 1018 1136 1302 1474 1667 1870 2050 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.8 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 104.3 105.8 107.2 108.5 111.3 114.1 117.0 119.9 122.6 125.1 127.6 129.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 14 14 15 14 13 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 28 31 34 26 29 33 9 8 14 18 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 21. 24. 23. 20. 17. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.1 102.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992016 INVEST 10/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.44 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.32 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 75.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.46 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.7% 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 3.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 2.8% Consensus: 0.6% 9.2% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992016 INVEST 10/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##