* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932016 06/16/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 39 45 44 39 32 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 39 45 44 39 32 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 34 32 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 9 13 14 17 16 20 26 38 49 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 1 0 1 1 2 4 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 54 49 33 30 49 74 95 122 163 189 202 217 207 SST (C) 29.4 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.4 26.7 24.8 23.9 22.7 21.8 21.2 21.5 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 152 147 144 138 132 113 104 91 82 76 78 82 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -55.2 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 77 76 76 70 67 56 50 44 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 5 4 4 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 12 3 -3 11 10 32 25 14 -5 -8 -35 -45 200 MB DIV 85 68 43 38 46 21 20 4 6 13 23 60 53 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 16 26 35 41 47 LAND (KM) 460 450 438 408 375 434 406 542 685 872 1102 1352 1350 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.9 18.3 19.6 20.5 21.7 22.5 23.3 24.5 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 105.8 106.3 106.8 107.4 109.2 111.7 114.8 118.1 121.4 124.8 128.1 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 9 10 13 14 16 16 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 20 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -14. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 20. 19. 14. 7. 0. -9. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 105.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932016 INVEST 06/16/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.26 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.81 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.46 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.64 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.1% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.5% 28.9% 23.0% 12.9% 7.9% 15.0% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 17.1% 7.0% 1.8% 0.6% 1.8% 0.5% Consensus: 4.0% 25.0% 16.3% 4.9% 2.9% 5.6% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932016 INVEST 06/16/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##