* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922016 06/06/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 27 29 30 31 29 29 32 35 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 30 28 28 31 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 29 26 24 24 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 17 22 22 29 29 25 26 17 20 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 5 1 2 -2 0 -1 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 119 162 180 186 189 192 195 184 190 172 173 150 171 SST (C) 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.6 30.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 171 171 168 158 155 155 156 155 154 153 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 9 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 63 64 64 66 69 69 69 70 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 6 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 -3 -5 0 2 28 45 59 54 67 66 60 200 MB DIV 48 55 59 55 59 42 39 74 77 80 96 78 65 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 453 369 270 158 54 -113 -91 22 78 124 116 25 -106 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.7 15.5 16.8 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 99.5 99.1 98.6 98.0 96.6 95.3 94.3 93.9 94.0 94.9 96.3 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 3 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 46 40 35 43 31 18 19 19 19 3 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 13. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -17. -19. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. 0. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 4. 7. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 99.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922016 INVEST 06/06/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 146.0 40.3 to 144.5 1.00 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.56 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.79 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.24 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.45 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 66.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.45 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.1% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.9% 30.1% 20.4% 13.2% 8.1% 14.9% 13.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 11.2% 9.6% 1.1% 0.3% 2.2% 1.1% Consensus: 4.0% 24.5% 17.1% 4.8% 2.8% 5.7% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922016 INVEST 06/06/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##