* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992012 07/18/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 35 45 54 59 59 62 63 66 63 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 35 45 54 59 59 62 63 66 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 42 46 50 57 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 6 3 4 1 4 4 0 2 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 1 -2 -4 -5 -5 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 34 31 40 46 40 19 117 219 196 184 131 156 211 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 145 144 144 145 145 146 145 140 134 129 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 71 68 67 64 62 61 55 53 53 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 8 10 10 9 0 -2 2 -4 -3 -5 1 200 MB DIV 86 52 12 5 18 36 30 18 34 14 31 30 39 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 -6 -6 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1521 1570 1624 1682 1710 1789 1896 2028 2171 2323 2497 2559 2323 LAT (DEG N) 8.6 8.8 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.3 119.3 121.4 123.5 125.8 128.1 130.5 132.7 134.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 34 29 29 26 18 27 30 23 26 18 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 5. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 25. 34. 39. 39. 42. 43. 46. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992012 INVEST 07/18/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)