* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972013 07/03/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 56 62 64 63 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 40 48 56 62 64 63 62 59 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 50 55 58 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 15 15 14 13 14 10 12 10 16 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 0 2 6 2 SHEAR DIR 84 66 76 76 70 78 68 95 89 83 61 71 45 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.8 25.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 158 159 161 161 159 156 150 142 123 103 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.7 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 7 8 6 9 8 11 8 10 5 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 73 73 75 79 83 80 78 73 66 65 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 42 43 49 32 13 27 34 48 57 37 9 200 MB DIV 67 57 52 54 69 68 90 79 61 28 39 10 1 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -8 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 345 330 300 274 253 195 145 88 29 44 131 313 244 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.6 14.5 15.6 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.2 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.5 96.2 96.9 97.5 99.0 100.4 101.7 103.0 104.6 106.5 108.7 111.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 15 21 23 23 25 33 14 8 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 24. 31. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 31. 37. 39. 38. 37. 34. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972013 INVEST 07/03/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)