* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962013 08/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 37 34 27 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 37 34 27 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 33 34 34 30 25 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 14 9 17 19 20 17 16 8 8 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 2 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 47 52 56 45 54 22 17 16 360 358 317 292 267 SST (C) 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.5 29.4 25.9 22.4 21.7 21.2 20.8 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 165 168 168 169 172 161 124 88 80 74 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -51.2 -51.8 -50.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 8 7 10 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 82 80 81 79 76 70 64 54 47 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 27 18 11 28 15 44 36 54 44 16 -22 200 MB DIV 66 52 68 86 70 73 46 38 8 4 -3 -7 2 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -6 -8 -19 -14 -24 0 -1 15 12 12 LAND (KM) 434 371 291 256 235 260 180 198 322 443 658 821 911 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.3 19.3 21.3 23.1 24.6 25.7 26.5 27.1 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.4 103.9 104.8 105.7 107.9 110.3 112.9 115.8 118.8 121.5 123.7 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 15 14 11 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 35 30 24 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 24. 27. 27. 26. 24. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 9. 2. -3. -8. -11. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962013 INVEST 08/27/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962013 INVEST 08/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##