* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952013 08/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 40 45 45 42 37 34 33 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 40 45 45 42 37 34 33 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 35 31 26 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 10 7 5 4 3 5 1 6 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -3 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 87 103 119 131 131 80 45 35 339 167 292 241 270 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.7 30.6 30.2 28.7 25.4 23.2 22.2 21.7 22.0 22.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 172 173 169 153 119 96 86 81 84 89 92 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 86 84 82 80 78 71 67 64 58 54 48 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 62 58 63 53 82 58 81 70 59 23 8 6 200 MB DIV 68 68 80 65 46 66 24 42 0 2 -7 -11 -3 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 3 -2 -1 0 8 7 1 1 -3 LAND (KM) 188 176 171 226 307 205 287 470 671 951 1285 1561 1755 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.9 21.5 22.8 23.8 24.2 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.4 106.3 107.5 108.6 111.3 114.1 117.1 120.4 123.7 127.1 130.3 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 15 15 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 24 22 13 29 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 316 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. 0. 7. 15. 21. 22. 22. 21. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 20. 20. 17. 12. 9. 8. 7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952013 INVEST 08/27/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 145.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952013 INVEST 08/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##