* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952012 06/20/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 8 10 5 6 9 12 17 19 24 22 19 24 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 10 7 4 5 0 4 2 3 5 1 1 SHEAR DIR 26 71 93 150 199 180 188 161 165 162 149 152 152 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.1 23.0 21.6 20.5 20.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 118 116 113 110 108 108 101 90 76 64 58 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 56 56 56 52 53 50 47 43 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 95 93 89 99 108 103 87 71 65 56 52 200 MB DIV 35 41 31 14 10 -15 1 0 11 6 23 15 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 360 395 432 469 467 454 460 465 454 439 430 402 437 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.6 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 108.8 109.3 109.8 110.2 110.9 111.5 111.9 112.6 113.3 114.1 114.8 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 6 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -25. -33. -39. -46. -51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952012 INVEST 06/20/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##