* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922013 09/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 45 44 40 36 33 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 37 42 45 44 40 36 33 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 32 31 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 13 12 9 13 14 12 13 8 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 1 0 2 2 4 2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 27 22 28 23 17 20 20 58 53 67 80 127 167 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.4 26.5 25.9 24.6 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 154 155 154 151 146 138 129 122 108 97 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 7 8 6 7 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 69 67 67 61 58 52 48 42 41 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 22 27 27 17 15 8 15 11 -1 -3 -10 -13 200 MB DIV 0 -10 3 -4 0 41 18 0 -5 6 -5 0 14 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 3 4 LAND (KM) 168 169 157 139 141 183 307 322 403 542 619 655 651 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.0 19.9 20.1 20.7 21.9 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 105.0 105.3 105.7 106.1 107.1 108.6 110.2 112.2 114.3 116.4 117.9 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 10 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 19 18 13 7 1 1 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 20. 19. 15. 11. 8. 8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922013 INVEST 09/27/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922013 INVEST 09/27/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##