* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/22/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 31 34 37 37 36 36 37 37 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 31 34 37 37 36 36 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 24 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 10 12 14 16 13 10 5 1 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 7 4 4 2 2 2 4 4 0 4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 116 103 127 155 164 199 204 201 246 271 307 136 170 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 165 165 164 162 160 158 154 146 146 143 138 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 65 67 66 68 63 62 56 54 48 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 5 5 1 -4 -9 -7 -8 -3 6 -5 -17 -23 200 MB DIV 68 78 104 85 86 100 83 77 10 7 -14 -13 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 2 2 2 5 8 LAND (KM) 669 660 652 653 655 651 651 668 724 801 968 1076 1236 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.1 14.2 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.6 101.1 101.7 102.3 103.6 104.9 106.3 108.0 110.0 112.2 114.5 116.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 49 53 59 57 43 34 45 46 54 29 18 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 420 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 16. 26. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 16. 17. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/22/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 144.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)