* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 11/15/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 20 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 24 26 26 27 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 22 28 37 46 44 47 48 63 74 74 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 4 3 -1 -5 -1 1 1 -9 -9 -14 SHEAR DIR 207 164 174 181 182 207 210 237 249 257 257 262 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.5 29.2 27.4 26.2 25.1 24.8 23.9 24.1 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 146 148 152 159 140 126 115 113 103 105 114 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.8 -56.3 -57.2 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 61 57 50 44 46 49 56 59 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -38 -42 -37 -23 -13 -20 16 -16 -70 -66 -65 -21 200 MB DIV 76 127 134 115 100 25 -16 3 19 37 18 10 8 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 4 0 4 0 2 6 14 -15 -17 -9 LAND (KM) 822 715 583 439 320 15 -342 -323 -131 -9 18 0 111 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 16.4 17.7 19.0 20.2 22.5 24.2 25.7 27.4 28.8 29.5 29.3 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.0 110.8 109.9 108.9 105.9 102.9 100.7 98.7 95.9 92.6 89.2 85.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 17 17 14 12 13 14 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 21 14 5 5 8 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 802 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -14. -25. -37. -49. -60. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -5. -6. -9. -15. -26. -37. -47. -53. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 11/15/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982013 INVEST 11/15/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##