* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 11/15/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 30 34 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 30 34 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 21 19 22 25 26 27 27 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 17 19 28 49 51 54 60 69 76 74 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 1 0 4 2 -2 -11 -8 -8 -5 -14 -9 SHEAR DIR 219 205 209 200 174 196 198 219 236 254 254 258 265 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.3 27.8 27.7 28.4 26.9 25.3 24.4 23.6 23.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 150 149 144 143 152 136 119 109 101 100 110 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -54.2 -54.5 -53.7 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -55.6 -55.9 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 5 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 64 64 58 52 42 39 43 47 51 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 13 10 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 -13 -30 -25 -13 -19 -18 -25 -49 -108 -97 -51 200 MB DIV 28 55 54 107 170 129 67 -20 -4 1 33 13 6 700-850 TADV 4 6 6 8 5 12 -2 2 -10 6 -24 -48 -15 LAND (KM) 863 791 748 701 585 269 97 -319 -366 -151 -32 -33 114 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.9 15.2 16.5 17.8 20.5 23.2 25.5 27.3 28.9 30.0 29.8 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.0 111.4 110.4 107.7 104.4 101.1 98.1 94.2 90.4 87.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 14 14 13 16 19 18 17 16 17 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 19 10 4 4 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 804 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -21. -32. -43. -54. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 2. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 6. -8. -14. -24. -35. -46. -54. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 11/15/13 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982013 INVEST 11/15/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##