* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 11/14/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 32 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 25 23 21 18 23 26 26 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 19 21 19 26 41 52 57 58 62 70 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 9 4 0 0 5 2 -2 -12 -7 -5 -6 N/A SHEAR DIR 240 221 209 214 208 193 201 208 218 242 252 257 N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.3 27.8 28.0 26.2 24.9 24.2 23.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 151 150 146 138 144 147 128 115 108 104 113 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.4 -54.8 -55.4 -56.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 75 72 69 64 60 56 48 41 42 46 49 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 7 3 3 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -4 -15 -27 -14 -13 -8 -13 -22 -65 -95 N/A 200 MB DIV 26 51 52 42 82 151 98 33 -8 -5 20 7 N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 4 3 4 9 11 0 -2 0 -9 -37 N/A LAND (KM) 835 774 729 711 680 418 100 -29 -415 -325 -116 18 45 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 13.6 14.7 15.8 16.9 19.4 22.0 24.4 26.3 27.9 29.4 29.5 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.8 110.6 111.3 111.5 110.0 107.2 103.9 100.6 96.9 92.6 89.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 14 13 13 13 13 16 18 17 17 18 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 20 17 8 2 11 20 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -11. -21. -32. -42. -51. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. -2. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 0. -7. -19. -29. -38. -48. -55. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 11/14/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982013 INVEST 11/14/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##