* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 08/30/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 41 43 39 32 24 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 41 43 39 32 24 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 34 33 31 29 26 23 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 14 12 5 7 12 15 21 19 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -3 -3 -1 0 3 6 9 SHEAR DIR 9 341 342 341 339 312 216 195 205 207 214 212 209 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.7 26.9 25.3 24.0 22.9 22.1 21.5 20.9 19.7 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 145 140 132 114 101 89 81 75 69 60 60 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 74 72 69 65 62 58 56 53 48 44 38 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 13 14 12 9 7 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 12 -2 -8 -9 7 23 32 15 13 -5 -2 200 MB DIV 45 58 67 46 15 11 -2 5 -7 -9 -1 -6 -13 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -5 -6 -2 -1 0 2 2 3 6 2 LAND (KM) 762 744 728 692 665 630 620 566 504 488 526 532 545 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.5 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.6 22.6 23.7 24.9 26.0 27.2 28.6 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.9 115.4 115.8 116.3 116.7 117.4 117.9 118.4 118.9 119.5 120.3 121.2 122.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 8 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 9. 2. -6. -13. -20. -27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 08/30/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982013 INVEST 08/30/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##