* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 42 53 56 56 54 48 45 43 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 42 53 56 56 54 48 45 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 34 34 32 29 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 2 5 4 7 2 9 9 10 7 6 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 1 -3 0 -4 5 0 0 3 4 5 SHEAR DIR 36 76 342 339 1 201 269 250 266 260 288 248 330 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.4 25.3 24.4 24.8 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 147 143 139 130 119 109 113 110 111 114 118 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 73 72 69 62 58 57 55 53 44 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 43 39 37 42 40 46 46 52 29 21 9 200 MB DIV 66 80 85 84 76 74 52 31 24 23 9 -14 -17 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -3 -5 0 -7 -3 -1 -3 3 0 1 LAND (KM) 1458 1499 1553 1626 1710 1857 2094 1988 1618 1280 965 683 414 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.9 17.0 17.9 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.2 19.1 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.5 122.8 124.3 125.7 128.8 132.4 135.9 139.4 142.6 145.6 148.3 150.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 14 15 15 17 17 17 16 15 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 23 11 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 8. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 17. 28. 31. 31. 29. 23. 20. 18. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/24/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)