* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 56 56 53 47 43 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 51 56 56 53 47 43 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 33 31 28 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 4 8 2 6 8 13 8 10 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 0 -4 -1 -5 1 2 0 2 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 29 20 29 21 353 124 250 241 254 240 248 229 235 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.0 26.0 24.6 24.2 24.4 24.2 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 150 146 136 126 112 107 109 107 111 115 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 79 75 70 62 57 57 57 52 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 13 13 15 16 16 16 15 15 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 43 44 39 33 25 21 18 24 34 17 29 200 MB DIV 64 75 88 92 88 93 79 55 11 26 7 -7 -23 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -3 -5 -3 1 1 1 0 -3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1466 1494 1519 1553 1598 1714 1861 2094 1905 1527 1173 850 545 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.3 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.3 17.6 18.9 19.7 20.1 20.3 20.2 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.9 120.9 122.2 123.4 126.1 129.4 133.1 136.6 140.2 143.6 146.7 149.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 18 17 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 18 11 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 10. 8. 8. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 26. 31. 31. 28. 22. 18. 15. 15. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/24/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)