* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 54 58 58 53 48 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 46 54 58 58 53 48 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 45 47 46 42 37 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 8 8 12 8 5 4 10 15 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 50 69 96 101 76 73 39 8 308 255 285 266 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.0 26.1 24.9 24.0 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 150 151 152 151 145 135 126 114 105 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 79 78 79 79 74 70 67 68 62 62 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 33 33 37 41 43 32 7 -2 -11 9 26 200 MB DIV 51 47 73 84 80 80 88 82 52 38 22 24 13 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 3 6 LAND (KM) 1277 1294 1321 1359 1406 1473 1567 1677 1788 1958 2125 1799 1514 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4 14.3 15.1 16.4 17.6 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.5 116.6 117.7 118.8 120.9 123.2 125.7 128.5 131.5 134.5 137.6 140.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 11 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 23 21 20 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 336 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 29. 33. 33. 28. 23. 19. 16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/23/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)