* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 54 60 61 61 56 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 54 60 61 61 56 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 30 32 35 40 44 46 46 42 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 5 3 2 5 6 2 5 8 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 22 16 27 46 58 43 69 6 168 312 226 247 242 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.7 26.6 25.3 24.4 23.6 23.6 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 153 150 145 143 132 118 109 101 100 101 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 79 78 76 75 73 67 65 57 57 52 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 15 15 19 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 6 6 3 8 17 11 9 7 10 20 27 200 MB DIV 65 62 66 58 61 59 63 54 59 27 -4 -2 26 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -9 -7 -7 -1 -5 -4 -2 -7 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 810 845 900 965 960 1004 1098 1238 1398 1586 1819 2012 1802 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.0 16.0 17.0 17.9 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.6 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.9 110.1 111.3 112.5 113.7 116.2 118.8 121.7 124.8 128.0 131.3 134.6 137.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 38 27 22 19 17 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 12. 12. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 29. 35. 36. 36. 31. 26. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/23/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)