* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 40 51 63 71 79 78 77 73 69 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 40 51 63 71 79 78 77 73 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 40 48 57 64 67 66 61 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 11 10 8 7 6 7 6 1 1 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 39 28 46 58 77 22 39 41 40 266 215 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.1 26.9 25.9 25.0 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 152 150 150 147 135 125 115 106 104 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 79 76 75 71 69 64 62 56 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 14 18 18 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 20 17 21 18 26 32 32 27 17 33 32 200 MB DIV 34 45 55 53 60 56 46 62 84 53 33 29 23 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -11 -7 -4 -5 -2 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 952 979 1019 1070 1128 1138 1200 1276 1401 1565 1757 1987 1987 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.2 15.1 16.1 17.1 18.1 19.1 20.0 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.3 111.3 112.4 113.5 115.7 117.9 120.3 123.0 126.1 129.4 132.6 135.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 15 16 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 26 24 25 19 18 7 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 12. 15. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 26. 38. 46. 54. 53. 52. 48. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/22/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)