* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/22/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 41 52 59 65 70 70 70 61 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 41 52 59 65 70 70 70 61 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 28 33 38 43 47 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 12 12 9 8 12 8 10 7 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 42 18 20 20 15 46 41 19 13 355 24 318 251 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 27.8 26.4 25.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 150 149 151 151 151 152 144 130 116 105 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 76 77 78 78 77 76 75 70 67 65 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 17 18 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 34 35 29 24 11 21 25 24 6 -17 -6 200 MB DIV 60 40 32 39 39 67 34 56 81 81 55 38 17 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -6 -6 -12 -8 -5 -2 -3 -9 -3 -11 -4 LAND (KM) 943 985 1034 1072 1113 1211 1244 1264 1321 1375 1514 1665 1906 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.4 12.1 12.9 13.8 14.8 16.1 17.6 19.1 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 108.1 109.2 110.3 111.3 113.4 115.3 117.2 119.2 121.7 124.8 128.3 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 13 15 17 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 29 28 30 25 27 18 20 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 14. 16. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 32. 39. 45. 50. 50. 50. 41. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/22/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)