* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/22/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 41 50 58 65 70 76 74 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 41 50 58 65 70 76 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 39 46 53 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 19 13 12 11 11 6 6 16 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -4 0 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 36 43 33 39 41 46 54 49 85 17 25 39 40 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.4 26.3 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 150 150 149 149 150 150 152 150 140 129 120 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.4 -53.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 79 78 79 77 78 79 79 82 77 76 71 70 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 15 20 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR 28 30 28 29 30 17 16 23 35 40 30 12 3 200 MB DIV 61 62 38 32 44 39 57 50 80 84 93 71 49 700-850 TADV -5 -8 -6 -6 -6 -5 -3 -2 0 -3 -7 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 916 958 1008 1059 1106 1203 1309 1340 1370 1448 1528 1672 1818 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.0 12.6 13.5 14.3 15.5 16.8 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.2 108.3 109.5 110.6 112.7 114.7 116.6 118.4 120.5 123.1 126.1 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 29 29 31 30 33 31 24 23 21 17 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 34. 36. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 9. 16. 15. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 21. 30. 38. 45. 50. 56. 54. 54. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/22/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)