* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982013 07/21/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 43 53 60 66 70 76 77 81 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 43 53 60 66 70 76 77 81 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 31 36 44 52 61 69 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 14 17 17 8 10 16 10 11 7 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 0 -1 0 -4 -6 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 41 43 48 43 42 67 53 72 42 41 32 45 58 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 27.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 151 151 150 149 150 150 152 151 142 133 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 79 81 78 81 80 81 74 74 69 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 13 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 28 33 34 33 24 21 27 35 41 38 23 200 MB DIV 59 48 51 70 60 55 51 63 24 31 58 81 35 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -4 -4 0 -2 -3 1 LAND (KM) 831 861 881 919 965 1057 1164 1281 1320 1378 1473 1567 1730 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.1 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.0 106.0 107.1 108.2 110.4 112.5 114.5 116.4 118.4 120.6 123.2 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 12 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 32 32 34 32 31 25 24 21 17 8 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 11. 11. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 23. 33. 40. 46. 50. 56. 57. 61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982013 INVEST 07/21/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)