* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/30/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 29 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 29 30 28 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 18 19 13 16 19 28 31 40 48 49 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 2 -3 3 4 -2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 299 302 303 305 286 261 266 277 248 254 253 258 260 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 138 139 137 133 129 126 127 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.7 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 71 71 66 67 60 61 60 57 51 47 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 16 5 -4 -4 -9 -20 -26 -29 -28 -33 -17 -13 0 200 MB DIV 22 22 11 22 19 33 26 53 72 25 1 -6 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1125 1136 1151 1170 1193 1251 1266 1278 1274 1274 1297 1359 1423 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.1 17.1 16.9 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.8 116.4 117.1 117.7 118.9 119.9 120.7 121.2 121.4 121.7 122.3 123.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 22 34 31 16 8 1 2 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -19. -26. -33. -36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/30/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)