* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 31 30 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 19 18 17 15 15 26 35 34 45 50 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 0 -1 0 7 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 284 293 295 306 308 295 289 286 278 254 254 255 252 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 139 139 139 139 139 136 130 126 124 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 70 66 66 59 61 55 53 51 44 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 17 7 0 -3 -11 -22 -29 -36 -26 -36 -20 -11 200 MB DIV 17 25 47 31 25 34 36 43 59 72 -12 -20 -20 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 0 1 3 3 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1141 1147 1158 1178 1202 1252 1298 1305 1282 1251 1252 1268 1324 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.4 17.6 17.6 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.3 115.9 116.6 117.2 118.5 119.7 120.6 121.2 121.4 121.6 121.8 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 24 19 22 27 21 15 6 1 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 22. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -9. -16. -23. -29. -33. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)