* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982012 10/29/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 29 31 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 29 31 30 26 23 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 9 16 20 20 16 17 19 26 27 33 44 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -7 -8 -6 -4 -3 -4 -2 3 6 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 216 283 293 291 292 287 283 268 269 266 256 254 255 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 145 144 142 142 140 136 129 125 126 129 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 72 71 70 62 61 59 60 55 54 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 5 9 4 -10 -5 -16 -17 -15 -11 -10 10 200 MB DIV 54 31 10 0 12 14 25 21 43 56 68 3 -28 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -1 1 2 1 2 1 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1063 1088 1083 1082 1086 1108 1150 1197 1189 1153 1088 1076 1102 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 16.2 16.9 17.5 17.4 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.9 116.0 117.2 118.3 119.1 119.5 119.3 119.0 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 36 29 23 19 14 10 29 22 15 11 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 5. 1. -2. -7. -13. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982012 INVEST 10/29/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)